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Crypto risk reward calculator

How much a trade can make against what it can lose, and how often it has to win to be worth taking. Enter an entry, a stop and a target.

%

A long that risks 5.00% to make 15.00% is a 3.00 : 1 reward-to-risk trade. It breaks even if 25.0% of such trades win.

Reward to risk
3.00 : 1
15.00% vs 5.00%
Break-even win rate
25.0%
before fees
Expected result per trade
+0.60 R
at 40% wins; R is the amount risked
Direction
Long
from where the stop sits
Expected result per trade at different win rates, in multiples of the amount risked
Win rate20%30%40%50%60%70%
Per trade, in R−0.20+0.20+0.60+1.00+1.40+1.80
After 100 trades−20 R+20 R+60 R+100 R+140 R+180 R

R is the amount you risk on one trade. +0.5 R per trade means you earn half of what you risk, on average. Fees and slippage are not included (distance to the target: +15.0%).

Win rate needed to break even

At each reward-to-risk ratio, the share of trades that must win to come out even before fees.

Reward to riskBreak-even win rateWin 40% of trades, per trade
0.5 : 166.7%−0.40 R
1 : 150.0%−0.20 R
1.5 : 140.0%+0.00 R
2 : 133.3%+0.20 R
3 : 125.0%+0.60 R
4 : 120.0%+1.00 R
5 : 116.7%+1.40 R

How the calculator works

The distance from entry to stop is what you risk; the distance from entry to target is what you stand to make. Their ratio is the reward to risk. With a win rate, each trade's average result in R is the win rate times the ratio minus the loss rate: a 40% win rate at 3 to 1 gives 0.4 × 3 − 0.6 = +0.6 R.

The ratio says nothing about how likely the target is. Back-test your own setups, or use our signal track record to see how often a signal has actually paid, before trusting a win rate you typed in.

Questions

How do you calculate risk reward ratio?
Divide the distance from entry to target by the distance from entry to stop. Entry 100, stop 95, target 115: the target is 15 away and the stop 5, so the ratio is 3 to 1. The stop sets what you can lose, the target what you hope to make.
What win rate do I need to break even?
1 ÷ (1 + ratio). At 1 to 1 you need to win half your trades; at 2 to 1 a third (33.3%); at 3 to 1 a quarter (25%). Fees and slippage push the real figure up a little.
Is a higher risk reward ratio always better?
No. A far target is reached less often, so the win rate usually falls as the ratio rises. What matters is the combination: a 1 to 1 trade that wins 60% of the time earns more per trade than a 3 to 1 trade that wins 20%.
What does R mean?
R is the amount you risk on one trade, the distance to your stop. A trade that makes twice its stop distance is +2 R and one stopped out is −1 R. Counting results in R lets you compare trades of different sizes.
How does this differ from the position size calculator?
This tool judges whether a trade is worth taking: how its reward compares with its risk. The position size calculator then tells you how many units to buy so that the stop costs a chosen share of your account.

Disclaimer: This calculator is educational and does not constitute financial advice. It assumes the stop and target fill at their prices and leaves out fees, funding and slippage. A win rate you enter is an assumption, not a prediction.