Seasonality: average return by month of the year
Each cell is the coin's average return in that calendar month across the years we hold. Months that are still running or start mid-data are left out, and a coin needs at least 4 years of a month to show it.
| Coin | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|
| BTC | +7.2 | +7.7 | +7.2 | +7.3 | +3.9 | −4.1 | +8.3 | −0.5 | −1.0 | +17 | +4.4 | +3.7 |
|---|
| ETH | +10 | +7.5 | +3.0 | +11 | +13 | −10 | +19 | +6.2 | −3.8 | +9.7 | +10 | −3.3 |
|---|
| BNB | +4.8 | +56 | +19 | +19 | +1.3 | −13 | +11 | +4.5 | +2.7 | +13 | −0.8 | +1.9 |
|---|
| XRP | +18 | −3.6 | +7.6 | +18 | −1.9 | −14 | +21 | +2.5 | +4.0 | +2.2 | +57 | −17 |
|---|
| SOL | +47 | +29 | +19 | +13 | −7.0 | −8.4 | +14 | +31 | +5.2 | +12 | +6.7 | −4.5 |
|---|
| TRX | +2.4 | +13 | +20 | +5.7 | +2.4 | −4.5 | +4.2 | +9.8 | +1.8 | +4.7 | +0.9 | +1.5 |
|---|
| ZEC | −7.7 | +6.5 | +18 | +3.2 | +10 | −22 | +11 | +16 | +19 | +107 | +17 | −8.3 |
|---|
| DOGE | +102 | +0.3 | +8.6 | +77 | −2.2 | −18 | +8.9 | −0.6 | −1.7 | +26 | +21 | −10 |
|---|
| LINK | +26 | +3.5 | +0.2 | +2.7 | +14 | +17 | +15 | +15 | +4.1 | +16 | +8.6 | −13 |
|---|
| ADA | +21 | +32 | +5.1 | +1.0 | +11 | −17 | +12 | +7.3 | −3.1 | −4.8 | +36 | −5.0 |
|---|
| XLM | +19 | −0.9 | +7.1 | +2.7 | +7.6 | −14 | +17 | −7.3 | +0.5 | +3.6 | +81 | −21 |
|---|
| BCH | −1.2 | +4.1 | +25 | +5.1 | −12 | +11 | +6.9 | −4.1 | +4.6 | +4.2 | +6.5 | −5.7 |
|---|
| NEAR | +12 | +10 | +26 | −6.7 | −1.1 | −26 | +7.7 | +16 | +38 | +1.6 | +8.3 | +18 |
|---|
| UNI | −8.2 | +11 | −4.4 | −19 | +11 | +2.0 | +22 | −6.7 | +19 | – | – | – |
|---|
| LTC | +0.8 | +7.1 | +3.1 | −1.3 | −8.9 | −9.1 | +3.0 | −2.8 | +5.2 | +5.1 | +18 | −8.5 |
|---|
| AVAX | +55 | +11 | +8.6 | −9.5 | −18 | −23 | +10 | +26 | +25 | −5.6 | +33 | +1.6 |
|---|
| HBAR | +32 | +36 | +26 | −9.5 | −5.9 | −18 | +14 | −3.3 | +6.5 | −2.1 | +31 | −5.0 |
|---|
| SHIB | −3.1 | +4.3 | +25 | −9.0 | −11 | −16 | +1.5 | +0.0 | +4.6 | +167 | −2.9 | −11 |
|---|
| All coins | +19 | +12 | +12 | +8.0 | +1.0 | −11 | +12 | +5.7 | +7.4 | +18 | +21 | −5.6 |
|---|
| Closed up | 48% | 50% | 60% | 48% | 46% | 16% | 69% | 45% | 57% | 60% | 50% | 30% |
|---|
Average percent return per month. Bottom row: share of coin-months that closed higher.
Pooling every coin, November has been the strongest month on average (+21%, up 50% of the time) and June the weakest (−11%, up 16% of the time).
These coins move together, so the 111 coin-months behind November are far fewer independent observations than they look: in effect each calendar month has only as many data points as there have been years.
History, not a forecast. A handful of years, dominated by a few big bull and bear runs, cannot establish a seasonal pattern. Use this to see what happened, not to time a purchase.