What has happened after this before
We found 419 times a coin lost 25% or more over seven days, across 32 coins between January 2019 and June 2026. Over the next 7 days, the typical result (the median) was +3.9% and the price was higher 63% of the time. An ordinary 7 days for the same coins had a median of −0.3% and was higher 48% of the time.
After the event
419 events, next 7 days
- Typical result (median)
- +3.9%
- Higher afterwards
- 63%
Any ordinary stretch
61,382 days, same coins
- Typical result (median)
- -0.3%
- Higher afterwards
- 48%
That is better than an ordinary 7-day stretch: after this event, coins were more likely to rise and the typical gain was larger. It is a tendency in past data and not something you can count on, and it is reported with the caveats below.
Caveats
- The largest share of the events, 25%, fell in 2021. A result that holds in one market phase can reverse in the next.
- Only coins that are in the top 100 today and have at least a year of history are included. Coins that collapsed and dropped out are missing, which tends to flatter the results.
- The average is +4.8% against a median of +3.9%: a few very large moves pull the average away from the typical case, which is why the median leads.
- Returns are close to close, with no fees or slippage. Each coin's events do not overlap, so one crash is not counted many times.