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Crypto bear markets and Bitcoin halvings: how deep, how long, how they ended

Every fall of 30% or more in the 20 largest coins since 2019: how far each went, how long it took to hit bottom and how long the coins took to get back to their old high, or that they have not. Choose the size of the fall and the coins, and the numbers recalculate.

What stands out

  • Since 2019 the 20 largest coins have had 51 falls of 50% or more; 32 of them won back their old high and 19 had not by October 6, 2026.
  • The coins that did recover took a median of 118 days to get from the lowest close back to the high, after a median of 265 days falling.
  • Bitcoin's worst fall in our data was −77%, from November 8, 2021 to November 21, 2022; it was back at that high 469 days after the low.
  • Today 15 of 20 coins are 50% or more below their highest close and 0 are within 10% of it.
  • 899 days after the April 2024 halving Bitcoin stood −31% from its high; at the same point after the May 2020 halving it was −70%. Two cycles are not a pattern.

Counted from daily closes on Binance since 2019: 83 falls of 30% or more across 20 coins. A coin that is young has had less time to fall, and the same bear market hits many coins at once, so these are not 51 independent events.

Where every coin stands against its high

Measured against each coin's highest daily close since it entered our data, which is not always its all-time high: a coin that peaked before 2019 is measured from its high since then. Hover a cell for the prices.

SHIB−93%4.9 years27 Oct 2021−95%297%0%
AVAX−92%4.9 years22 Nov 2021−96%279%3%
ADA−91%5.1 years3 Sept 2021−95%370%9%
DOGE−86%5.4 years7 May 2021−92%273%2%
LTC−82%5.4 years9 May 2021−89%191%2%
HBAR−80%5.1 years15 Sept 2021−93%472%2%
BCH−80%5.4 years11 May 2021−94%193%2%
SUI−77%640 days4 Jan 2025−88%163%2%
NEAR−74%4.7 years14 Jan 2022−95%281%4%
LINK−74%5.4 years9 May 2021−90%469%8%
XLM−71%5.4 years11 May 2021−90%272%3%
XRP−58%441 days22 Jul 2025−83%459%4%
TAO−58%667 days8 Dec 2024−80%260%3%
SOL−54%626 days18 Jan 2025−96%453%7%
UNI−52%667 days8 Dec 2024−87%248%7%
ETH−44%410 days22 Aug 2025−79%437%13%
BNB−40%363 days8 Oct 2025−76%340%15%
BTC−31%365 days6 Oct 2025−77%420%25%
TRX−23%672 days3 Dec 2024−70%233%8%
ZEC−17%10 days26 Sept 2026−94%276%5%

Coin furthest from its high first. Select a column heading to sort by it.

Every big fall, and how it ended

A fall runs from a high close to the lowest close before the price next gets back to that high. “Won back in” counts from the low. Several coins fell in the same bear market, so they are not independent events.

Fell at least
Falls of this size
51

32 won back their high, 19 not yet

Typical depth
−76%

median fall, peak to low

Typical fall
265 days

high to lowest close

Typical recovery
118 days

low back to the high, 32 recovered

SOL−96%6 Nov 202129 Dec 2022418 days2.1 years3.2 years
AVAX−96%22 Nov 202119 Jun 20264.6 yearsnot yet4.9 years
NEAR−95%14 Jan 202211 Feb 20264.1 yearsnot yet4.7 years
ADA−95%3 Sept 202125 Jun 20264.8 yearsnot yet5.1 years
SHIB−95%27 Oct 202116 Jul 20264.7 yearsnot yet4.9 years
ZEC−94%7 May 20215 Jul 20243.2 years478 days4.5 years
BCH−94%11 May 20219 Nov 2022547 daysnot yet5.4 years
HBAR−93%15 Sept 202131 Dec 2022472 daysnot yet5.1 years
DOGE−92%7 May 202118 Jun 2022407 daysnot yet5.4 years
XLM−90%11 May 202131 Dec 2022599 daysnot yet5.4 years
LINK−90%9 May 202119 Jun 20232.1 yearsnot yet5.4 years
LTC−89%9 May 202125 Jun 20265.1 yearsnot yet5.4 years
SUI−88%4 Jan 202518 Aug 2026591 daysnot yet640 days
UNI−87%8 Dec 202410 Jun 2026549 daysnot yet667 days
XRP−83%14 Apr 202118 Jun 2022430 days2.5 years3.6 years
SHIB−83%10 May 202120 Jul 202171 days96 days167 days
AVAX−82%10 Feb 202120 Jul 2021160 days35 days195 days
TAO−80%8 Dec 202411 Feb 2026430 daysnot yet667 days
ETH−79%8 Nov 202118 Jun 2022222 days3.2 years3.8 years
XLM−78%19 May 201912 Mar 2020298 days257 days555 days
NEAR−77%13 Mar 202120 Jul 2021129 days49 days178 days
BTC−77%8 Nov 202121 Nov 2022378 days469 days2.3 years
ADA−76%26 Jun 201912 Mar 2020260 days114 days374 days
SOL−76%18 Jan 20256 Jun 2026504 daysnot yet626 days
HBAR−76%5 Oct 20192 Jan 202089 days41 days130 days
BNB−76%21 Jun 201912 Mar 2020265 days292 days557 days
SOL−75%31 Aug 202023 Dec 2020114 days41 days155 days
XRP−72%22 Jul 202516 Aug 2026390 daysnot yet441 days
ZEC−72%16 Nov 20257 Mar 2026111 days167 days278 days
XRP−72%22 Jun 201912 Mar 2020264 days256 days520 days
BNB−71%3 May 202118 Jun 2022411 days717 days3.1 years
XRP−70%24 Nov 202030 Dec 202036 days96 days132 days
TRX−70%15 Apr 202117 Nov 2022581 days647 days3.4 years
ETH−68%26 Jun 201912 Mar 2020260 days141 days401 days
ETH−68%22 Aug 202525 Jun 2026307 daysnot yet410 days
TAO−65%11 Apr 20247 Jul 202487 days91 days178 days
UNI−65%6 Mar 20245 Aug 2024152 days121 days273 days
BTC−63%26 Jun 201912 Mar 2020260 days226 days486 days
HBAR−62%12 Feb 202012 Mar 202029 days313 days342 days
LINK−62%5 Mar 202016 Mar 202011 days99 days110 days
HBAR−61%13 Apr 202120 Jul 202198 days54 days152 days
LINK−60%15 Aug 202023 Sept 202039 days114 days153 days
DOGE−59%5 Jul 201916 Mar 2020255 days114 days369 days
LINK−58%2 Jul 201914 Sept 201974 days150 days224 days
BNB−58%8 Oct 202530 Jun 2026265 daysnot yet363 days
SOL−58%18 May 202120 Jul 202163 days27 days90 days
ETH−57%11 May 202120 Jul 202170 days97 days167 days
ADA−54%16 May 202120 Jul 202165 days30 days95 days
BTC−53%13 Apr 202120 Jul 202198 days91 days189 days
BTC−53%6 Oct 202530 Jun 2026267 daysnot yet365 days
TRX−51%3 Dec 202416 Mar 2025103 daysnot yet672 days

Deepest first. “Not yet” means the coin has not got back to that high. Select a column heading to sort.

Bear markets on one chart

Each coin's distance below its own running high, day after day. The deeper and wider the dip, the harder and longer the bear market; the time the line takes to climb back to zero is the recovery.

How far below its high each coin has been

Zero is a coin at its highest close so far. Pick up to 3; hover or touch the chart for the reading on a day.

−80%−60%−40%−20%0%2020202120222023202420252026

Bitcoin after each halving

Bitcoin's block reward is cut in half roughly every four years. Our price history begins in 2019, so it holds two halvings: May 2020 (reward cut to 6.25 BTC) and April 2024 (to 3.125 BTC). The next is expected around April 2028.

Bitcoin after each halving

Price as a multiple of the halving-day close, by days since the halving. Hover or touch for a day.

May 2020 halving April 2024 halving
100200500halvingday 180day 360day 540day 720day 900day 1080day 1260

Filled dot: the cycle's highest close. Hollow dot: where the cycle ends, at the next halving or today.

Halving day0%0%
90 days+36%+3%
180 days+73%+4%
365 days+562%+31%
545 days+639%+64%
730 days+240%+17%
850 days+126%0%
High, first 2 yrs7.9× · day 5461.9× · day 534
Fall after the high−77% · day 924−53% · day 801

Return from the halving-day close, at the day shown after the halving.

At the same point, 899 days after the halving, Bitcoin stood −31% from its high this cycle (April 2024) and −70% from its high in the May 2020 cycle. Both cycles made their highest close in the second year after the halving. Two cycles is two data points, and each had a different economy around it.

History, not a forecast. Two halvings cannot show that the halving drives the price, and the 2012 and 2016 halvings are outside our data.

Questions

How long do crypto bear markets last?
Of the 51 falls of 50% or more in our data, the 32 that got back to their high took a median of 265 days to reach the low and 118 days more to regain the high. 19 had not recovered by October 6, 2026, so any average of recovered falls flatters the outcome.
How far do cryptocurrencies fall in a bear market?
Among the 51 falls of 50% or more in our data, the median was −76% and the deepest −96% (Solana). Use the table above to filter to falls of 30%, 50% or 70%.
How deep was Bitcoin's worst bear market?
−77% in our data, from November 8, 2021 to November 21, 2022 (378 days). Bitcoin regained that high on March 4, 2024.
Does the Bitcoin halving cause a bull market?
We cannot say, and two halvings is too few to test it. In the two years after the May 2020 halving Bitcoin's highest close came 546 days later at 7.9 times the halving-day price; after April 2024 it came 534 days later at 1.9 times. Our price history starts in 2019, so the 2012 and 2016 halvings are not included.
When is the next Bitcoin halving?
The halving happens every 210,000 blocks, about every four years. The next one, at block 1,050,000, is expected around April 2028; the exact date depends on how fast blocks are found.
Can this tell me when the next bear market will start or end?
No. It records what happened to these coins since 2019. Falls and recoveries have varied a lot between coins and between cycles, and the sample is a few market cycles long.

Disclaimer: This page is educational and does not constitute financial advice. It describes past price moves from daily closes on Binance to October 6, 2026 and leaves out fees, taxes and staking rewards. Past performance does not predict future results. Cryptocurrency prices are volatile; never invest more than you can afford to lose.